Will APT29 (Cozy Bear) conduct a new spear-phishing campaign against NATO member governments in 2026?

APT29, attributed to Russia's SVR foreign intelligence service, has a well-documented history of targeting NATO governments, think tanks, and diplomatic entities. Following their 2023–2024 campaigns against European governments and US political organizations, this market forecasts continued activity in 2026.

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if: A credible public attribution (government advisory, CISA/NCSC/BfV joint advisory, or Tier-1 threat intel firm) identifies APT29 conducting a new spear-phishing or credential theft campaign against one or more NATO member government entities before 2026-10-01.