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AIMULTI-CHOICELIVEAIFrontier ModelsLLM

Which lab will release the next frontier model after Anthropic's Fable 5?

Probability Distribution1 predictions
OpenAI
36%
Google DeepMind
27%
Anthropic
14%
Meta
5%
xAI
9%
Other
10%

Market Overview

Anthropic's Fable 5 set a new frontier-model bar. This market asks which lab ships the next model that surpasses it on a widely-cited public benchmark or leaderboard (e.g. LMArena, MMLU-Pro, SWE-bench).

Resolution Criteria

Resolves to the lab whose model is first to be independently reported as surpassing Fable 5 on a major public benchmark/leaderboard, per coverage from 2+ reputable outlets or the leaderboard itself. Resolves "Other" if it is a lab not listed.

Market Info

ClosesDecember 31, 2026
CreatedJun 10, 2026
CategoryAI
Created by@admin
Creator accuracy100%
ResolutionCommunity vote + moderator
StatusLIVE

MARKET STATS

Total Predictions0
ClosesDecember 31, 2026
ResolutionCommunity + Moderator
CategoryAI
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