Will a ransomware group publicly claim a US federal government agency as a victim in 2026?

While ransomware attacks on state/local governments are common, successful attacks on US federal civilian agencies (CFO Act agencies) are rare due to CISA oversight and CDM program protections. This market forecasts whether a ransomware group will publicly post a federal agency on their leak site or extort a confirmed federal agency in 2026.

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if: A ransomware group posts a US federal civilian agency on their data leak site, or a federal agency publicly acknowledges a ransomware incident, before 2026-12-01. DoD and IC components excluded. State and local government does not qualify.